NINTH SEASON: NFL Preview

I'm sorry that this hasn't gone up earlier.  I forgot there was a Thursday night game this week.  I hope that it didn't negatively affect your roster choices.  I know how much you all value my insight and vast knowledge.  I had started writing an examination of if a fan base was willing to gain a title if it cost them a decade of suckitude.  It was started because I was thinking about the Bucs and how bad they have stunk it up since their title.  But the article became too big for this setting, so I posted on my other award winning blog.  If you want to read it, go over there and read it.  Or read it on Facebook.  Or don't.  I don't care.

I don't pretend to know a great deal about every single NFL team.  As I have gotten older, my affection for the NFL has diminished.  I know I've said this a bunch of times, but I find it hard to root for a corporation (unless it's Apple - Steve Jobs! 1-2-1-2! Making iPods for Me and You!)  But football still is the king of sports - and we all do love it.  So, what would a new season be without a bunch of stupid lazy guys making a ton of off the wall comments about how billionaires and millionaires should run their business better.  And, heeeeeere we go!

NFL STUFF

• There are two rule changes that I think are going to really play a part in this season.  One of them is getting its overabundance of press because it affects one of the royal family of the NFL - the Mannings.  The new placement of the ump is going to hurt the Colts.  That is just a fact.  That team runs like a machine.  And when there is a two second delay put into a machine without the designers of that machine knowing, bad things happen.  My guess is that it will cost the Colts one win.  So, that means they will only go 13-0 before losing to Tennessee on the road on a Thursday night.  (Now, if that happens, I am going to book a flight to Vegas.)
• The other rule change is the harder stance taken on concussions.  Last year I harped the whole season about concussions.  And apparently the NFL listened to my position, since we all know the first place Roger Goodell goes is this website.  Now, players with a head injury must be kept off the field until all symptoms are gone and the player has been examined by an independent neurologist - who is probably going to be the brother-in-law of the Offensive Coordinator.  As a (overly) sensitive human bean, I am glad for this rule.  We have had enough players lose their health and life over a poorly treated head injury.  But, as a fan, this is going to wreck havoc with the season.  We saw it briefly in the preseason when Eli Manning and Ryan Grant both got sidelines by getting whacked in the head.  It is out of the team's hands now.  A player with a head injury is out of the game - since it is impossible to have no symptoms AND be examined by Uncle Jimmy before time expires.  And how does the rule go into effect?  Is there going to be a league official on hand in each game to decide if a player needs to be benched?  What if a team hides the injury?  If a player gets his bell rung on a play and stays down, does that mean he is automatically out?  And if it is decided by refs or league officials, will they have a subjective approach or a clear standard?  It could get awkward if one ref is more strict than another - leading to questions of favoritism.  My guess it that we will see at least a half dozen games decided by a random head shot.  Just imagine if in week 17 you have a game with playoff implications and having the star QB hit hard in the first quarter - not enough to give him a concussion, but enough to put him out for a play or two.  That should be interesting.
• The Tom Brady wreck this morning showed just how random things can be.  We sometimes forget that these players live normal lives too.  We tend to think of them strictly as players.  Their injuries only come on the field.  But we have seen several players involved in vehicle related issues in the last few years - the worst being the death of Chris Henry.  I know from my personal experience, several injuries have been completely random.  Falling down a wet set of stairs.  Spraining an ankle on a broken sidewalk.  Dropping an ice cube on my foot and cutting my toe.  I'm actually amazed we don't see weird random injuries more often.
• As you can probably imagine, I'm pretty hacked off about the whole labor dispute that is coming up.  I think that you have to question the reasoning abilities of a bunch of billionaires and millionaires fighting over the pie.  It is actually disgusting.  The owners are trying to take this opportunity to stick it to the players on several fronts.  One of the biggest sticking points is that the players are asking for lifetime medical coverage for injuries incurred on the field.  The owners are refusing.  I have a guy I went to church with in high school who plays for the New Orleans Saints.  He has been posting about the labor struggle and how it going to be a lockout - NOT a strike.  The owners are the ones causing it.  And he talked about the coverage issue.  He blew his knee out last year and had to have major surgery.  So, later on in life, he is pretty sure he will have to have his knee replaced.  That is not covered by the NFL.  It is an out of pocket expense, even though it happened on the field.  That is a $250,000 surgery.  Like he said, I don't care how much you make, that is hard to plan for.  I wish that the owners would see their players as human beings.  That doesn't happen - I mean look at what it took for anything to be done about the concussion issue.  These guys were sacrificing their brains and then were ridiculed for sitting out after a major head injury.  It took Congress making noise about investigations before the NFL did anything.  Pretty lame.
• I think the golden days of the NFL are definitely in danger of being gone - if they aren't already.  As the MLB learned, the American public is not forgiving about a work stoppage.  That is going to be especially true when the country is in the middle of big economic struggles.  In addition, the days of sellouts and high ticket prices are over.  There are twelve teams in danger of having blackouts this season!  The Giants and Jets just built this huge billion dollar stadium and are having trouble selling the seats.  The average fan was priced out long ago.  Even the somewhat affluent fan is ditching the stadium.  It just isn't economically feasible to go to games - especially if you have a family wanting to go.  The NFL should be thinking about how to re-connect to the people who made it such a success.  Corporate partners may be nice money sources, but they make lousy fans.
• I really wonder how many more Heisman Trophy winners will become NFL stars.  The numbers are getting worse and worse.  Do you honestly think Mark Ingram is going to light it up?  The Heisman rewards something different than the NFL needs.  Heisman voters are impressed by players who use their unbalanced talent to rack up crazy numbers.  But in the NFL everything is more even, so there is not that dominance any more.  That is why there are only eight Heisman trophy winners in the Hall of Fame.  One play demonstrated the difference:  Tim Tebow bulling across the goal line for that touchdown in the first Denver preaseason game.  And then he came away with broken ribs.  He had done that play so many times in college.  This time he got nutted up.  That is the difference between the NFL and College.  He got worked by third stringers.
• The Tebow Question.  I am not a Gator fan.  I hate UF.  But I like Tebow.  And I really WANT him to succeed.  But, honestly, I don't know.  If this is going to be determined by sheer will, power of personality, and dedication - then he is the guy who could do it.  But I don't know.  I read a really interesting thing about Tebow the other day.  Bill Simmons of ESPN wrote the following:  "After watching football for 35 years, I now believe the QB Success Pie Chart is something like 65 percent confidence/leadership/poise/coolness/intelligence, 20 percent accuracy/arm strength, 5 percent athletic ability and 10 percent toughness/balls/heart. That means Tebow is already 80 percent home. Throw in his marquee value and I believe Jacksonville fans and Buffalo fans will be very bitter by December."  Simmons is about the most cynical writer out there - someone who would hate Tebow BECAUSE of his faith.  And he says that Tebow already has 80% of the tools necessary to win.  I guess it comes down to how important that other 20% is, and how fast Tebow can improve that.
• Here's one thing I don't understand.  Kurt Warner retired to spend more time with his family.  Then he agreed to do Dancing With The (Sort of) Stars.  Why can't people just be honest.  "I'm retiring because I don't want to get the crap kicked out of me and have my brain turned into jelly.  I want to parlay this fame into a truckload of caysh while I have the body and brains to enjoy it."  I thought he was going to be an announcer.  Maybe he figured the exposure (heh heh - double meaning) from DWTS would help him land a studio spot.  
• Rather than going the route of all the other prognosticators, I am now going to predict who will come in LAST in each division.  Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Oakland, Washington, Chicago, Tampa Bay, St. Louis.  And, chances are, you can use seven of those eight again next year.

COLLEGE STUFF

• It appears as if the ACC is the new Big East.  I forgive Virginia Tech for losing to Boise State - the Broncos are a good team.  But that UNC performance against LSU was horrific.  I don't know if I have ever seen a team fall apart so fast as they did in the second quarter.  Having every skill player suspended didn't help.  But that is inexcusable in and of itself.  I guess we'll find out this week what kind of year the ACC will have.  Ohio State/Miami, FSU/Oklahoma, Virginia/USC, and NC State/UCF.  
• I think the UF/USF game is going to be interesting.  USF has developed a bit of a cockiness, what with their impressive ability to knock off ranked opponents.  That bodes well for them - not being skerred of the UF monster.  But, UF is a team that loves to knock the cockiness out of teams that don't have a reason to be cocky.  And they need to prove something after last week's half-hearted effort.  That combined with the USF coaching change could bode poorly for USF.  But, that game last week showed UF has chinks in its armor.  If it was possible to objectively view this game for any of the SFL, it would be an interesting matchup.  
• Georgia plays South Carolina this week.  Both teams are ranked and the both are in that mid-level SEC group that will probably split all the games leading to a bunch of 8-4 and 9-3 SEC teams.  I have no clue who to pick at this point.  All I remember is back in 1996, when I first had started working at USF, I had made it very clear that I was a Georgia fan and hated UF.  Eddie Gilley (owner of Gator Greats) naturally took offense at this.  I had been working there less than two weeks.  And he said, "Man, Georgia won't even beat South Carolina this weekend."  I didn't know anything about how the teams looked that year.  I just knew that no one defiled UGA.  So I said, "Yea huh."  He bet me that SoCar would win and that I had to buy him lunch if Georgia lost.  (He would buy me lunch if Georgia won.)  Stupidly, I agreed.  23-14 South Carolina.  I, of course, had no money.  I was working for NAMB as a semester missionary and hadn't gotten paid.  In fact, they screwed up my pay so I didn't get paid for a couple months.  Eddie, fortunately, was compassionate and didn't make me pay up.  That is why I still have massive nervousness every year for this game.

SFL STUFF

• Make sure you update your rosters for Thursday night's game.  It looks to be a good one.  My prediction is that New Orleans will win 38-34 and Brett Favre will retire after the second quarter but come back before the second half kickoff so he doesn't have to attend the team meeting at halftime.
• Remember their is live scoring now on Yahoo!  You can't change your lineup mid-game.  But you can watch them destruct and be savaged live.
• Be sure to use the message board to insult each other.  I believe that last volley was by Odious Repercussions about two weeks ago.  At our normal posting rate, that should be answered in October.  
• Have fun out there and keep your chin straps buckled.